Vietnam trade tops $601 billion as the import bill swells

Vietnam's goods trade passed $601 billion by July 15, up 27.8% year on year, preliminary figures from the Customs Department show. The headline is a record. The structure underneath deserves more attention: cumulative imports grew 34.4%, more than one and a half times the pace of exports, swinging the year-to-date balance to a $20.46 billion deficit. For shippers that tilt is not an abstract macro story. It shapes vessel space, container availability and clearance queues this quarter.

The first half of July shows the two directions running at different speeds. Two-way trade reached $51.54 billion in 15 days. Exports brought in $23.95 billion, down 9.7% from the second half of June, while imports moved the other way at $27.59 billion, up 4.6%. The fortnight alone produced a $3.64 billion trade deficit.

Cumulatively through July 15, exports stood at $290.5 billion, up 21.4%, against roughly $311 billion of imports, up 34.4%. The gap between those two growth rates is the $20.46 billion deficit. Much of the import bill is machinery and components feeding export factories, so surging imports often front-run outbound cargo. But as long as the curves keep diverging, input costs stay under pressure.

Cumulative imports grew 34.4%, more than one and a half times the pace of exports, swinging the year-to-date balance to a $20.46 billion deficit.

By commodity, electronics drives both legs. Exports of computers, electronic products and components reached $77.7 billion, up 50% year on year. Machinery and equipment added $36.1 billion, up 23.6%, and phones and parts $34.6 billion, up 17.9%. Textiles barely moved at $20.6 billion, up 0.8%.

The import side is even sharper. Inbound computers, electronics and components hit $122 billion, up 64%, meaning nearly four of every ten import dollars now buy electronic parts. Refined fuel imports rose 62.7% to $6.1 billion. The outlier is precious stones and metals, which jumped 266% from $502 million a year earlier to $1.8 billion.

For the electronics sector, $122 billion of component imports set against $77.7 billion of computer and electronics exports says the assembly chain is running flat out. Electronics moves by both sea and air, so the heat lands directly on vessel space and airfreight capacity on North East Asia lanes into Vietnam: the inbound component leg now competes for space as hard as the outbound one. Shippers in other industries using the same import lanes should plan around that squeeze.

Textiles is the counterpoint. Growing 0.8% while the overall export basket grows 21.4% leaves the industry some 20 percentage points behind the average. When order books stay flat, the contest shifts to cost: the shipment that holds a good freight rate and an on-time delivery window is the one that keeps the customer. Fuel is worth watching too, with import spend up 62.7%, a cost line that gradually feeds into trucking rates and bunker surcharges.

Coverage in Vietnam's securities daily Tin nhanh chung khoan cites forecasts that national trade will clear $650 billion by the end of July. If that pace holds, cargo keeps piling into the gateway ports in both directions through the second half. What to do now:

• Imports: book inbound space early rather than assuming that leg stays loose; electronic components are absorbing capacity on both sea and air lanes from North East Asia.
• Have import dossiers ready before vessel arrival so storage days are not added to an already busy inbound flow.
• Exports: the 9.7% dip in early July is one reporting period, not yet a trend; watch the Customs Department's next 15-day release before reworking Q4 plans.
• Flat-order industries such as textiles: audit logistics cost per shipment, because that is where the competition now sits.

Homexim works both sides of this balance daily: FCL/LCL ocean freight for import and export cargo, and customs brokerage so paperwork is ready before the ship berths. To weigh second-half plans against rate movements by lane, see our brief on July rates to the US or send us your lane for a same-day quote.